Sanity-check our pricing before we raise it

I'm considering a pricing change and want a sanity check before I take it to the team, not a full pricing strategy overhaul.

Current pricing: [paste your tiers, e.g. "$49/mo starter, $149/mo pro, $499/mo enterprise, annual gets 15% off"]
Proposed change: [what you're thinking — e.g. "raise Pro to $199, no change to Starter"]
Why now: [one line — competitor moved, costs went up, haven't touched it in 2 years, whatever's true]
What we know about churn/reaction risk: [anything you have — even "nothing, that's the problem" is useful]

Give me:
1. The single biggest risk in this specific change (not pricing risk in general — this one)
2. Two ways companies usually cushion a price increase like this (grandfathering, phased rollout, added value) and which fits your situation better, with a one-line reason
3. A blunt read on whether the new number still makes sense relative to what you told me about competitors and costs — say "seems reasonable," "seems aggressive," or "seems low," and why
4. One metric to watch in the 30 days after the change that would tell you early if it's going wrong
5. The one sentence you'd need to be able to say to an angry existing customer if they call — write it for me

Don't tell me pricing is "as much art as science." I need a decision-support answer, not a caveat.